VR Is a Marathon Not a Sprint, Road to Adoption Will Take Years: Video

特洛伊德雷尔: 大家好！. 我是流媒体公司的特洛伊·德雷尔.我们将在2016年流媒体东部为您带来. I'm having conversation with some of the thought leaders of the industry while were here. Joining me right now is Joel Espelien, senior analyst for 扩散组, one of the principle analysts of the new video economy. 乔尔今天在这里谈论虚拟现实. 他在主持一个关于虚拟现实的小组讨论. 我不是信徒. Can you convince me, or are you not that big on it yourself? 你站在哪里??

乔Espelien: 首先,谢谢. 很高兴见到你，特洛伊. 我认为自己是一个虚拟现实现实主义者. I think that a part of the industry is way too optimistic about VR right now and thinking that it's going to be massive media tomorrow. I think the other part of the industry is way too skeptical thinking it's another 3D, 它将在六个月内灭绝. 我认为两者都不对. 虚拟现实是真实的，但它是一场马拉松，而不是短跑. It's going to take a long time to get mass adoption.

特洛伊德雷尔: We're seeing so many content companies pouring money into VR efforts, trying to get people to use Goggle Cardboard and Oculus Rift and experience their content in virtual reality and 360. 这会给他们带来回报吗? 他们的投资会有回报吗?

乔Espelien: 我认为现在有很多FOMO. 害怕错过VR. 我认为我们正处于典型的试验阶段. We've lived through this in the mobile industry when there was tons of trialing and piloting of mobile video before it turned into anything. 这似乎是虚拟现实的似曾相识. I don't think most of these early pilots and trials are going to produce a very high ROI, but hopefully for those that do it well it is going to product some learning that may bear some fruit down the road.

特洛伊德雷尔: Is it just about gaming right now, or are there entertainment things that are going to pay off?

乔Espelien: 我认为游戏是市场制造者. Why I think that's probably going to be important is you've got to understand that the early adopter VR user is a gamer. 你说的是年轻男性群体. I really puzzle when I see some of the high culture travel type VR that looks like it's targeted to an affluent baby boomer type market. 对我来说，这不是VR类型的市场. I think those that have done video target that's highly target that could easily crossover into that young gamer audience is going to do a lot better.

特洛伊德雷尔: We're seeing a lot with concerts, also, you-are-there experiences.

乔Espelien: 又一个不错的? 我觉得一定要选对节目. I'm not sure I would do the Rolling Stones if I was going to target VR right now because I don't think those people are going to put on a headset, but for the right acts I think music is another good crossover immersive type thing. 尤其是节日之类的东西. 不一定是传统的大型体育场那种, 而是一些更有机的东西, 我想可能会很有趣.

特洛伊德雷尔: 现在来看硬件，谁会胜出. I've got four Google Cardboards at home that I never even use. Are we all going to be throwing out our Cardboards in a few years and using other devices.

乔Espelien: Fortunately those Cardboards are recyclable, Troy, so they're environmentally friendly. I compare it to I've been revisitign the early days of video consoles, 那是我小时候长大的地方. 你要记住, we went through an entire generation of Atari 2600s, 年代, 录影, 我个人的最爱. The fact that I can pitch 录影 on here is a boost. But all those things then died out in the '82 video game crash. 包括雅达利破产. 然而，雅达利2600在当时是成功的吗? 确定. I think that's absolutely where we're at with VR today. We're in the Atari 2600 era where things can get big without necessarily being the long-term sustainable successful.

特洛伊德雷尔: 我一年前才把我的智能电视扔掉.

乔Espelien: 你把它扔了?

特洛伊德雷尔: 救世军的人知道了. 一些人得到了它，大约20场比赛. 我希望它能找到一个好归宿.

乔Espelien: 不错的.

特洛伊德雷尔: 谢谢你参加我的节目，乔尔. This is 特洛伊德雷尔 coming to you from 流媒体 East.